加拿大西部石油减产迫在眉睫

中国石化新闻网讯 据Oil & Gas Journal网站3月24日报道 雷斯塔能源表示，由于Covid-19病毒造成的全球供过于求以及油价持续上涨，加拿大西部的石油产量将需要从4月份开始削减约11%，即44万桶/天。该国的可用存储容量将在几天内耗尽。

加拿大西部的存储基础设施的最大存储容量为4000万桶。根据雷斯塔能源的计算，已经有超过3000万桶的原油和稀释沥青储存在仓库中，根据目前的生产预计，到3月底原油和稀释沥青的储量可能接近产能的高端。

因此，加拿大西部的石油产量将需要削减44万桶（雷斯塔能源预计在疫情爆发前达到400万桶/天），以平衡当地约3500万桶的储存量。这意味着铁路出口的原油将至少减少75%，至10万桶/天。

2019年第二季度，加拿大西部石油产量约394万桶/天。

雷斯塔能源高级分析师Thomas Liles表示：“今年铁路出口原油大幅减少，以及几个重要油砂开采项目推迟春季维护，这几乎是必然的，使情况更加复杂。”

3月11日，艾伯塔省省长杰森肯尼提出了减产的可能性，但省政府尚未正式宣布减产。如果出现政府政策导向的减产，这可能会适用于最大的运营商（就像2019年政府强制的减产一样），但由于冠状病毒相关的人员配备问题和需求不足，一些运营商可能会自行减产。

到目前为止，大多数运营商对近期的减产问题都没有表态，不过一些主要运营商已经下调了全年的生产指导值。

加拿大也在其东海岸的纽芬兰和拉布拉多近海生产石油，3月22日赫斯基能源公司报告称，为防止疫情扩散，其West White Rose扩建工程已暂停施工。

吴恒磊 编译自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

Oil production cuts in Western Canada are imminent

Western Canada’s oil production will need to be cut by about 11% from April, or 440,000 b/d, due to the global oversupply created by the Covid-19 virus and ongoing oil price, said Rystad Energy. The country will run out of available storage capacity in days.

Western Canada’s storage infrastructure has a generally accepted maximum storage capacity of 40 million bbl. More than 30 million bbl of crude oil and diluted bitumen is already held in storage, by Rystad Energy calculations, and the volume is likely to edge towards the high end of capacity by the end of March under current production assumptions.

As a result, Western Canada’s oil production, which Rystad Energy expected to reach some 4 million b/d in its pre-coronavirus estimate, will need to be cut by a total of 440,000 bbl to balance local storage volumes around 35 million bbl. This incorporates at least a 75% reduction in crude-by-rail exports to 100,000 b/d.

In the second quarter of 2019, Western Canada’s oil production amounted to about 3.94 million b/d.

“Compounding the situation is the near-certainty of a steep reduction in crude-by-rail exports this year, as well as deferral of spring maintenance at several key oil sands mining projects,” said Thomas Liles, senior analyst at Rystad Energy.

On Mar. 11, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney raised the possibility of production curtailments, but reductions have not yet been officially announced by the provincial government. If government policy-directed cuts occur, they will likely apply to the biggest operators (as was the case for government-mandated curtailments in 2019), but some operators may cut production on their own as well due to coronavirus-related staffing issues and demand insufficiency.

So far, most operators have not been vocal on the issue of near-term cuts, although some of the major players have revised full-year production guidance downwards.

Canada also produces oil offshore Newfoundland and Labrador on its east coast, where on Mar. 22 Husky Energy reported the suspension of construction activities at its West White Rose expansion to prevent the spread of Covid-19.